When the NCAA Selection Committee was putting together it’s final bracket, they made some less-than-popular decisions. Virginia and Michigan State making the field, FAU and Michigan State being in the 8/9 game, the Mountain West stuck with four double-digit seeds and an 8… the list goes on and on. The biggest mistake they made, however, was putting Boise State in Dayton. Did the Broncos deserve somewhere between a 7 and 8 seed? Absolutely. That isn’t the mistake. What the Selection Committee did was take the most Blue Collar, chip on the shoulder, Cinderella Made school in the country, and give them a reason to be MAD. Add to that the fact that the NCAA is doing a behind the scenes all access look at the Bronco’s time in March… let’s just say if the Broncos come out as mad as I THINK they will tonight, it could be a VERY special week (or two… or three?).

Game Facts

Time: 7:10 MST

TV: TruTV (Direct TV, Youtube TV and Dish Network all carry it but if you have Fubo… maybe a free trial somewhere?)

Radio: 670 KBOI

Announcers: Spero Dedes, Jim Spanarkel, and Jon Rothstein on TV, Bob and Abe on the Radio call, as usual.

Line: Colorado 2.5, O/u 141, Colorado -148, Boise State +124

Game Notes

1.) Round Ten

This is the Bronco’s 10th trip to the Big Dance, and fourth under Leon Rice. More impressively, this is the third straight year the Broncos have been dancing. Boise State hasn’t played in Dayton since the infamous 2015 selection where, somehow, the committee decided it was fair to make Boise State play a true road game in the NCAA tournament, sending the Broncos to play Dayton in Dayton. You will see a lot of that game tonight almost assuredly, as Tru will most likely bring it up so just know: DERRICK MARKS WAS FOULED.

2.) A potential night of firsts

Things haven’t gone well for the Broncos in the NCAA Tournament when they have made it in the past. They are 0-9, haven’t led a tourney game since Montigo Alford knocked down a pair of free throws to make it 55-53 against Dayton in 2015, and have never won a game in Dayton, road game or neutral site. All of these things can change tonight, and they need to. This is a special group of players, and now they are playing mad. It’s time to get out of the 0-for club.

3.) Mountain West together: STRONG

Mountain West fans have made it pretty clear that they are wearing the Blue and Orange this evening, and that included Colorado State fans who made the trip to Dayton. Throw that in with the Dayton fans who have recognized how badly the Bronco’s have been screwed over in NCAA tournaments as of late, and you should hear a solid bias towards BSU this evening on the broadcast. That could be important, because momentum will be critical in this one!

What Do The Analytics Say?

This game is going to be decided by razor thin margins. I’m not going to break down every site, because they all say the same thing: Boise State is 1-2 point underdogs. This game will be in the low 70’s, with most scores being 73-71/2.

Compare this to last year, where it was somewhat flipped. Ken Pom had Boise State as one point favorites, with Boise State projected to win 64-63. Haslametrics had it different, with the projected score being 65-64 Northwestern. Any way you shake it, this is yet again an incredibly tight game for the Broncos, and a few plays will probably decide who’s headed to Indy and who’s headed back west.

Don’t Look Now

I took a look at what predictive metrics (mainly Haslametrics as they allow you to do “what if” scenarios) would say if we win tonight… Boise State will be favored by a hair against Florida if they win.

Scouting Colorado

There is one name Bronco fans need to get familiar with today: KJ Simpson. He’s an NBA level point guard that’s averaging 19.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game. He’s shooting 45% from 3 on 161 attempts this season, and he will play more or less every minute. In the last five games, he has missed three total minutes.

Tristan da Silva is the next scorer, putting up 16 points and 5 boards, followed by Cody Williams, J’Vonne Hadley and Eddie Lampkin Jr, who are all in double digits in points. Lampkin Jr. is an interesting prospect, as he leads the team in rebounds and stands at 6’11. He’s not a shot blocker, that duty falls to da Silva who is averaging .6 blocks/game, along with Williams.

The interesting part about Colorado is their depth. They are seven deep, but after their top seven, the minutes fall off significantly, from low 20s to low 10s. This means the Broncos will be on a level playing field in terms of legs, a nice plus.

Score Prediction

I do not want to do this. At all. No matter what I say, I’m going to jinx this. BUT. I have a vision. A vision of 12 magic. Max Rice, it’s time to announce yourself to the world, again. Boise State 79, Colorado 70.

Go Broncos.

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