Short answer? No. Heisman trophies have to be won solely by the merits of a single player. Long answer? Well:

Mad Dog Rising

Truth be told, I wrote this article a few weeks ago in defense of Maddux Madsen. I wasn’t able to finish it, then Maddux became the quarterback I was gonna tell everyone that he was, so I didn’t need to write it anyway. Funny how those things work out.

Case in point, Madsen getting put in CBS Sports Top 10 QBs list:

While I know it’s easy for me to say that I knew he would be better, the truth is, I was a day zero Madsen believer. My first assignment with the old OBNUG was Recruiting Roundup for that 2022 class. I watched Madsen and Jeanty highlights every week, and my knack for evaluating QB play (see: pure guess with a dallop of hope) helped me spot this gem.

My proof is in this tweet, sent just a few days after the Broncos secured a 10-win season in the Frisco Bowl under new freshman quarterback Taylen Green.

Here’s the link if you still don’t believe me:

Is Madsen good or is Jeanty just making it easy on him?

The important thing about this point is that both things can be true. Certainly Mad Dog has benefited from light secondary looks. (Because Jeanty is quite literally the greatest thing since cerebral left-handed quarterbacks)

But it’s also true that he’s playing well. Let’s check box score stats: 1800 yards and 17 TDs with 64% completion, 2 picks, and 5 sacks.

While I will freely admit box scores aren’t everything, at this point in the season they tell a fair story about who Maddux is and isn’t on aggregate.

In short, he’s a good quarterback that isn’t asked to throw the ball a ton, but when he does so, it’s with great efficiency.

Stats, Advanced, Again

Breaking that down further, it’s important to notice that sack number. Maddux has been sacked 5 times, 4 with the starting o-line, and 3 of those being sacks of 1 yard. If we remember my last article about Maddux Madsen, I talked a lot about EPA, Expected Points Added.

EPA measures individual plays by how many points they add to a team. General rule of them is that interceptions cost a team ~5 points, and sacks cost a team 2 points.

Quick math tells us that 2.5 sacks are worth an interception. And that’s where things get even better for Mr. Madsen. One yard sacks aren’t really -2 EPA, they’re more like -1 or -0.5.

Before I go too far with this, I want to address an important point: “Aren’t sacks an o-line stat?” The answer is yes. Our O-line has played phenomenal this year, especially given the injuries, but the key piece I’m referring to is pressure-to-sack rate, or how often a player gets sacked when pressured.

Maddux Madsen only gets sacked about 10% of the team he gets pressured, which is categorically elite.

All this to say Maddux Madsen is doing what is asked of him, and that is all we need right now. When UNLV and SDSU tried to sell out to stop Jeanty, Madsen showed them why you can’t.

The Ashton Jeanty Show

I don’t need to tell you that Ashton Jeanty is good at football. I don’t even really need to tell you why he’s good at football.

That said, we gotta talk about the Heisman.

Stat Padding Etc. Etc.

No, he did not need more carries against Portland State and Utah State.

I believe this in my bones. When it comes to the Heisman race, box scores aren’t winning this thing. Hype and highlights do. The last two weeks Jeanty has had objectively good stats against incredibly stiff opposition, especially when considering his elbow injury.

So why are his Heisman odds falling?

With Jeanty, it’s not fair. With stacked boxes, breaking 5 tackles means the guy who tackles you is probably a linebacker who gets you for a 5 yard gain. Without a stacked box, guy #5 is a safety 12 yards downfield, and he might be the only guy who has a chance.

If you need any more examples, check out these graphs below by statsowar on Twitter. There is no comparison; Jeanty is an outlier. Our anomaly.

Player of November

However, the real moral of this story is that Jeanty did not need to win the Heisman against Portland State or Utah State, nor could he have. A few hundred more yards or even a few more highlight runs just don’t move the needle. Why?

While player of the year award is *technically* an objective measure of quality over the course of the season. It’s also very much a prisoner-of-the-moment award. Any good will Jeanty garnered (or could have garnered) in the first half the season has lost a bit of it’s luster at this point, and that’s okay. He’s done what he’s needed to do, and that is stay in the race.

If Jeanty can finish strong, and wow fans and voter when eyes are on him, such as on Big Fox this week against Nevada and especially Black Friday against Oregon State, that’s exactly what we want and need.

Burying the Lede

Where does Maddux Madsen come back in to all of this?

Another week of football will show us a bit more about how teams choose to play the Broncos, but something very encouraging happened this past week. After stuffing the box with defenders in the first half (and getting absolutely torched), the Aztecs moved their defense out.

Maybe the Aztecs got bored and wanted to try something else down 30, or more hopefully, this is a trend. Maddux Madsen is heating up, forcing defenses to pick their poison. That’s fantastic news for the Heisman campaign.

Latrell Caples actually addressed this in an interview this week:

Normally I wouldn’t like a quote like this going around, but this is really good bait. Ideally, teams will put this on their bulletin board. I hope they take this as a challenge.

It remains to be seen how defenses will choose to play Jeanty, but rest assured, Maddux Madsen will have a lot to do with it.

While Maddux Madsen had a slow start to the 2024 campaign, perhaps adjusting to the new season (and a new MCL), he’s been getting better, and now he’s hitting his stride.

Madsen’s play will be essential for a crucial playoff bid, and just maybe a Heisman trophy too.

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