Where We Are Coming From
It feels like forever since Mountain West media days in July. The season was full of optimism, with Boise State picked to win the conference and three players named to the first-team all-conference. For lifelong fans, this was unreal. That type of hype leads to expectations that this season will be different as we search for our first NCAA win.
As the non-conference rolled on, it was a mixed bag of ups and downs. Big wins vs Clemson and St. Marys showed the potential of this team. Losses against Washington State and San Fransisco showed that teams need time to gel. The killer loss was at the buzzer (You’ll hear that statement again) against Boston College in the Cayman Island Classic championship game. That loss has been a rock sinking our resume for the NCAA tournament. Going into conference play, though, it looked like things would get better; boy, would we be wrong.
Glass Half-Empty
Talking with fans this season feels more negative than in years past. We don’t have a bad conference loss for the first time in memory. In past seasons, it seems like we have had a conference loss against Air Force or Wyoming, which drags down the mood of the fans. So far, we have lost to SDSU at home and on the road against CSU and USU at the buzzer and in New Mexico. Those losses aren’t season killers, but with each loss, the fan base gets more riled up, myself included. Maybe it’s the numerous lineups Leon has trotted out. Maybe it’s the lack of defensive intensity. I believe it’s the expectations from the preseason that are dragging us down.
Since Boise State has been in the Mountain West, our basketball team has been the “little brother.” I never felt we got the same respect or love as New Mexico and UNLV. When the voters finally showed us the respect we’ve been working towards, it felt like we finally belonged. Good or bad, it seems that we’re good at proving everyone wrong.
Glass Half-Full
Despite the 4 conference losses, most of the big games left are at the X. We are 8-1 at home and 4-6 on the road/neutral. The goal going forward is to stack as many Quad 1 wins as possible. That would mean essentially running the table and winning our last 11 games. Easy. (Not easy).
A Q1 win at home means beating a top-30 team in the Net. A Q1 win on the road is beating a top-75 team. As it stands, only Utah State is a Q1 game at home. At the rate New Mexico is winning, it might also be a Q1 at home. We have 1 solid Q1 game against on the road against SDSU, and maybe Nevada will also be. Boise State is 2-3 in Q1. 0-3 in Q2. 4-0 in Q3 and 6-1 in Q4. That lone loss in Q4 is against Boston College. Brutal.
Every win going forward helps our resume. A home loss would crater our chances of making it 4 seasons in a row to the NCAA tournament. There is one big thing Leon can do to help our chances going forward: solidify our starting lineup and limit our bench rotation. (Okay, technically two things but you get the idea.)
Leon’s Lineup Headaches
From last season, Boise State lost 11 players to graduation or the transfer portal. They only returned 2 starters and 2 bench players. That is a lot of scoring and continuity to replace. The Broncos solved this problem with the transfer portal and incoming freshman. Notably, they brought in transfer Alvaro Cardenas from SJSU and Javon Buchanan, the reigning NAIA player of the year.
Lineups were expected to be unique through the non-con as Leon found his best lineups going into conference play. The regression from Omar and the individual inconsistency of players has Leon scratching his head. A record 10 different players have started a game this season. The only people who haven’t are Peanut, (who had his redshirt burned two games ago), and walk-on Brendan Ramirez.
I sympathize with Leon and I also blame him for the lineup issues. As a head coach with lots of talent and options, you must evaluate two things:
- Who are my best players?
- Who plays the best together?
I have coached teams whose best lineup didn’t always include my best players. This season on our roster, we have 4 guards and 7 forwards. This means Leon is forced to play more forwards, leading to defensive matchup issues because a player like Andrew Meadow is forced to defend a smaller, faster guard. Credit to Andrew, though; he has taken a huge leap forward this season. He is the second-leading scorer, averaging 12 points per game.
For the first time in Leon’s career at BSU, he hasn’t picked a consistent starting lineup. Heck, he hasn’t picked a solid rotation all season long. Leon has gone 10 or 11 players deep this season in his rotation, and that has consequences.
If you look at last year’s statistics, Leon’s main lineup played over 35% of the potential minutes. That means that the lineup would play 14 minutes per game together. This season, the lineups are only getting 6% of the game minutes together.
This is killing the continuity of this team, and it shows on the court. We are 3/4 of the way through the season and it still looks like the players are learning everyone’s names. After the 3rd buzzer-beater loss, Leon promised big changes to his lineup and rotation. I believe his starting lineup will be Alvaro Cardenas, Julian Bowie, Andrew Meadow, Javan Buchanan, and Tyson. This is the lineup that *almost* came back against Colorado State.
Normally, I don’t like Tyson at the 5 due to matchup issues, but he showed he’s still a force down low regardless of who’s defending him. This lineup played great defense and has the highest 3-point percentage. Chris Lockett, Peanut, and a combo of Omar and Ugbo will be off the bench. According to Leon, Peanut is their best shooter in practice. Can he keep that up in games? That kind of trial by fire really puts the burn in burning redshirts. If we can get that starting lineup back up to mid-30 % like in seasons past, we might salvage this season.
How Full Is The Glass?
I think the glass is half full, but it is leaking fast. These 11 games could turn out like Spencer Danielson’s interim coaching career. We could run the table and win the whole thing without sweating out Selection Sunday. It would keep the program competitive for years to come and retain the talent on the roster. Or struggles could continue hurting our outlook for the future. I, for one, cannot wait to see what happens. It all starts tomorrow night at home versus Nevada.
