I’ve kept a mantra this basketball season: 4 games at a time. Sure, one game at a time would be better, and that’s what my inner coach tells me to say, but as fans that’s not always realistic. The first REAL four game stretch just wrapped up: Colorado State, Nevada, UNLV and SDSU. I wanted to see the Broncos go 3-1, and they hit that number (the one was defiantly not the one that we all expected), and now it’s time for another four game stretch. Fresno, Utah State, New Mexico, and Air Force await the Broncos over the next two weeks, and going 3-1 with no bad losses over this one is IMPERATIVE. First up: Cal State University Fresno (AKA Fresno State).
Game Facts:
- Date and Time: Tuesday. 1/23 at 8:30 PM MST
- Location: Save Mart Center, Fresno, California
- TV: Fox Sports 1
- Radio: 670 AM/93/1 FM
Game Notes:
In osition to be in position
The Broncos are hanging around where they need to be to make things happen come March, and that was made even more clear with a gutsy win over San Diego State on CBS on Saturday. Most major bracketologists have the Broncos in the field, with some going as far as giving the Broncos a single-digit seed. It’s only January, but the Broncos four Qaud 1 wins are certainly nothing to scoff at. The Broncos only managed 3 last season, and there are many more opportunities to pick up a few more.
Keep your head in the game
The Broncos will need to avoid a big game letdown on the road on Tuesday night, because the every game in the Mountain West seems to be a test (just ask Nevada). Another massive home test awaits the Broncos on Saturday when top 20 Utah State rolls into Boise, and it is imperative that the Broncos not only not get caught up in the win from the weekend, but don’t get caught looking ahead to the Aggies.
Getting Roddie Rolling
It may have taken a while, but Roddie Anderson III has started to get it figured out for the Broncos in the last three games. He’s hit double figures in two of the last three, and had eight assists against Colorado State. It’s clear that the sophomore transfer has finally started to find his place in the offense, and it goes even deeper than surface stats. Anderson has figured out how to get other scorers in the game, and all parties involved are benefiting. When Anderson was recruited, it was clear that coaches saw a lot of Marcus Shaver in him: his athleticism and explosiveness, his willingness to go north-south, it all smacks of the makings of a great point guard at Boise State. Anderson had to figure out how to balance scoring and passing, he had to figure out how much penetration he needed to get the ball to his teammates on the perimeter in space… simply put, Roddie Anderson needed to feel out the Mountain West. It sure seems like he’s done that, and he’s starting to get into a groove.
What Do the Analytics Say?
The major analytics like the Broncos in this one, and they all say something fairly similar:
KenPom gives the Broncos a 79% chance at victory and projecting a 73-64 win for the Broncos.
Bart Torvik is pretty similar, giving Boise State an 83% chance to win and favoring the Broncos to win 72-63.
Hasslametrics says the Broncos are 12 point favorites, projecting a 74-62 win.
BPI gives the Broncos an 81% chance at victory, projecting a 9 point difference.
Scouting the Bulldogs
It’s been a rough start to the year for Fresno State, with the Bulldogs coming into the contest at 8-10. They have only won one of their last five, and are 1-4 in conference.
Players to watch:
Bronco Fans will remember Isiah Hill, as the super-senior returns for the Bulldogs for one last ride. Hill is putting up a team-best 12.4 points a game, while averaging just over two assists/game and an impressive 100/37 assist/turnover ratio.
On the glass, Enoch Boakye is grabbing a staggering 8.2 rebounds/game, and is second on the team with 17 blocks on the season.
Last time we met…
Score Prediction
It’s hard to argue with analytics. Everyone has the Broncos between 9-12 point favorites in this one, and I think I’m pretty close to that, if not a tad more bullish. I think Boise State does something it hasn’t done in a while: put a game to bed early. Boise State wins, 75-58.
After watching a number of our games this season, I can say this: when we play with aggression and an edge, we can beat anybody and have a high ceiling. Unfortunately, our team can also play down to their competition. Here is hoping that tonight’s game against Fresno is the start of our Broncos playing with fire and intensity every game. If they can do that, they WILL BE DANCING again and we just might get that elusive tournament victory!
I wonder what makes teams fall apart in the first game when it looks as if they have the talent to go further. Having been there myself, it is just this overwhelming feeling of just being grateful to be there. No matter what the coach does it is hard to change. The leaders in the locker room must take over.
Agree on the tendency to play down. We get up for the Colorado States and the San Diego’s, but this is where championships are won. Can’t compete for the title if you don’t take care of business in conference.
When Malichi Nelson transferred to Boise State, his father was quoted as saying others would come. USC had a couple of top-notch receivers who entered the portal. And it looked as if Boise might snag at least one of them. However, both of those receivers have transferred to other programs.
Personally, I’ve been waiting for something. As I have posted before the WR room is in better shape now than a year ago. Could the Broncos use another WR? Could Richard the Third use one more horse?
Anyway, I saw this about Chris Marshall;
https://aggieswire.usatoday.com/2024/01/23/wr-chris-marshall-texas-aggies-football-ole-miss-rebels-football-transfer-portal-boise-state-football/
Just a little more on Marshall; he is the nation’s NO. 1 JUCO prospect.
There is something quite interesting about the loss of Green and McAllister; in each case, they have been replaced by someone the recruiting sites grade as higher.
Green 0.8700
Nelson 0.9300
McAlister 0.8900
Marshall. 0.9300
Camper 0.8500
Although Camper’s rating is lower, it’s based on BIG 10 competition.
Hopefully that’s meaningful
Clady wasn’t ranked so high, etc.
Agree with your point. Those numbers don’t reflect what’s in a guy’s heart.
Casey Kline was one of Boise State’s top recruits but it was based on his play against weak HS competition.
Another word about Marshall. He’s been in some trouble. I hope he mends his ways.