Games don’t get much bigger than this one at the X. Any time a ranked team rolls into Boise, it’s a big deal, but when the Broncos are favored to beat that ranked team? You had better believe Saturday is about as big as any Saturday in January can get.
Game Facts
- Date and Time: January 27th, 2:30 PM MST
- Location: Extra Mile Arena, Boise, Idaho
- TV: Mountain West Network (Jay Tust and Nick Duncan)
- Radio: 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler and Abe Jackson)
- Odds: Boise State -2.5
Game Notes
Top of the Table
The Mountain West has poised itself for a special season, with phrases like “Six Bid Mountain West” being thrown around and at the top of the standings sit two teams. Only Boise State and Utah State have one loss in conference, with both at 5-1. New Mexico is a half game back, as well as San Diego State. The top four in the league have began to separate in terms of league positioning (we don’t want to start talking about who is ACTUALLY the best, we’ve seen how that’s gone on social media this week). At the end of the day, one simple fact rules over the rest: whoever wins in Boise on Saturday will sit alone at the top of the Mountain West with just under half the conference season remaining.
A Winning Tradition
The Aggies have not been exactly good at basketball in the 208 as of late. In fact, Utah State is 2-8 in their last 10 trips to Boise, and 4-6 in the last 10 overall games agains the Broncos. They have won the last two games, one in Logan and one in Las Vegas, but when it comes to winning in Idaho, the Aggies can’t hack it. All time, Utah State is 12-16 in Extra Mile Arena, with all but four of those wins coming in the pre-Mountain West era of the rivalry. Leon Rice is 13-11 against the head coach.
What Would a Win Mean?
Victory on Saturday afternoon firstly and most importantly, put the Broncos on the top line of the Mountain West Conference. Secondly, it would end the bubble talk about the Broncos for now, but in a positive way. A win puts the Broncos squarely in the “in” category of the tournament. It’s only January, but it’s always nice to think about where you stand. Finally, a win would almost certainly get the Broncos ranked for the first time since 2022, and only the third time it’s ever happened. In 2014-2015, the Broncos were 25th going into the Mountain West Tournament, and in 2021-2022 the Broncos peaked at 23rd in the polls after beating San Diego State in the Conference Championship. No Boise State Mens Basketball Team has ever been ranked outside of the month of March.
What Do the Analytics Say?
Once again, everyone agrees: The Broncos are SLIGHT favorites, but it’s razor thin.
KenPom likes the Broncos in a close game, but gives the Broncos a 55% chance of victory (73-71)
Bart Torvik is even more pro-Boise, saying the Broncos are 4-point favorites (74-70)
Haslametrics is the closest of the lot, saying the Broncos have the slight edge, but calling it at just under two points (73-71.5)
BPI likes the Broncos by just over three points, giving them a 62.4% chance of victory.
Scouting the Aggies
Utah State has defiantly impressed in the opening phases of the season, but have heavily benefited from a much easier schedule. The Aggies have only played three Quad 1 games, and they have more Quad 3 and Quad 4 games then Quad 1 and Quad 2. According to KenPom, they only have one win over a top 40 team, a 77-72 home win over Colorado State early in conference play.
Players to Watch
Great Osobor has been the leader for the Aggies in scoring this year. The 6’8 Junior from Bradford, England has been playing a hybrid guard/big roll this year, and is averaging 18.7 points and 9.7 rebounds. He doesn’t do it from deep either, as he as only attempted 6 three-pointers all year. Osobor also leads the team with 27 blocks this year.
Darius Brown II is the Aggies leader in minutes played, and has dished out 7.1 assists/game. He playes over 34 minutes a game, and scores 10 points per game.
Last Time The Aggies Came To Town…
Score Prediction
The Broncos don’t drop games at home often, and it’s even less often that they drop games at home to the Aggies as of late. I think that trend continues, and the Broncos take care of business, 75-68.
Seems as though they live or die by the three. It’s been a bit sluggish. It’s about time they start draining them.
Unfortunately, we CANNOT hit free throws when it matters most. Also, Leon Rice’s teams lose games at home, and games they should not lose. Sad prediction: we don’t even make the tourney this year. Realistic prediction: we squeak in and lose a play-in game. Huge bummer.
It’s too bad. Rice isn’t a bad coach, but he is sorely missing the mind set that being really good at the fundamentals of the game is the most important thing you can do as a coach to guarantee success. When games are tight they just can’t pull them off because they can’t execute fundamental basketball. Free throws, rebounding and ball control. Our football program was the best when we excelled at fundamental football. We were sure tacklers, solid blocking fundamentals, sure pass catchers and disciplined in the special teams game. We gave up yards sure, but when you make… Read more »
Well, maybe Max isn’t that good, but he just put up 35 at New Mexico.
Had a monster game. I think the moral of the story is that he thrives on the criticism. So obviously they should bench him and he should never see the court again as a Bronco. That should be good for 40?
After a dismal season with the LA Chargers, Kellen Moore was reported as saying, “All things considered I’d rather be in Philidelphia.” Be careful what you wish for. Rumors are, Kellen Moore has all but signed his name on the dotted line to be the Eagles’ next offensive coordinator. Likely he will be paid far north of $2 million. Here’s to his success. Here’s another team I don’t particularly appreciate that he’s coaching for. Little brother Kirby is doing quite nicely at Mizzou. Comparing apples to oranges, he did better than Kellen last year. Kirby’s pulling down about $1.2 million… Read more »