When the season started this year, there were few who thought Utah State would do much of anything in the Mountain West. New coach, no players returning, all signs pointed to a down year for the Aggies. That has not been the case, and Utah State have had a great season. They stole an OT win in Boise earlier this year, and are in the Top 25. Saturday marks the day they dedicate their floor to Stew Morrill. It’s a massive day for Utah State. But this isn’t a Utah State page. And I’m not a Utah State fan.
Boise State has the chance to put themselves in prime position to win the Mountain West regular season with a win. They have a chance to ruin a memorable day for Utah State fans. Most importantly, Boise State has a chance to lock in a spot in the NCAA tournament with yet ANOTHER Quad 1 road win.
Simply put: Saturday night is as big as it gets for both programs.
Game Facts
Date and Time: February 10th, 8 PM MST
Location: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, Utah
TV: Fox Sports One
Radio: 670 AM/93.1 FM (Bob Behler and Abe Jackson)
Odds: Utah State -4.5
Game Notes
Bounce Back Game
Boise State hasn’t dropped two games in a row since November, and haven’t lost two non-tournament games in a row all year. Utah State on the other hand is coming off of two tough losses, falling at San Diego State and Nevada. Neither game was particularly close, with both games being decided by more than 14 points. You can bet your bottom dollar that neither team wants to see another game in the loss column.
First Place Up For Grabs
Both teams know that a win tonight will go a LONG ways towards winning the Mountain West Regular Season. San Diego State and New Mexico have tougher schedules down the road, and the same goes for Nevada. A win tonight will go a very long way towards getting the first seed in the conference tournament, something that is pivotal in the insanely loaded league (I know it’s changed, but just look at how brutal the tournament will be for the team that doesn’t have a “1” next to their name!)
Spoil the Stew
The Aggies are dedicating their floor to supposedly legendary coach Stew Morrill tonight. The Broncos are out to do what they do best, spoil the party with a win. People in Logan don’t have much to get excited about when it comes to their sports outside of Men’s Basketball, and they have made it pretty clear how they feel about Leon an Max Rice: they hate them so much they live there rent free 365 days a year, and 366 every four years. A Max Rice masterclass tonight to ruin the one night of the year the Aggies have to celebrate would cause the city of Logan to melt down… and I am here for it.
What Do the Analytics Say?
There is a bit of debate in the point spread, but all of the major analytics say the Broncos are ~3 point underdogs.
KenPom says the Broncos have a 37% chance at a win, and predicts the game will end 74-71 to the Aggies
Bart Torvik says the Broncos have a 38% chance of winning, but also has the score at 74-71.
BPI says the Broncos have a 36.3% chance of winning, and likes Utah State by 3.6 points.
Haslametrics likes the Broncos more than the rest (or, more accurately dislikes the Aggies more than the rest), and says the Broncos will fall by just under two points.
Score Prediction
This game is so big it’s hard to put into words, a win for the Broncos would go a very long way to achieving the goals they are striving for. I am incredibly nervous for 8 PM to roll around, but I feel a Max Rice masterclass that will cause anarchy in Logan.
Boise State 75, Utah State 68.
Go Broncos.
Well ……. Boise State is not nearly as good as they have been in the last couple years. We’ve gotten STOMPED two games in a row, and we are faltering. Unless we win the MWC tourney, we won’t get a bid to March Madness. Sad, buy Rice has reached his ceiling. 🙁
Who’s going to be the next OC?