- Time: October 29thd, 2022, 5:00 PM MST
- Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
- Weather at kickoff: 56° Mostly Sunny
- Moon Phase: Waxing Crescent
- Odds: Boise State by 27
- TV: FS1
- Radio: 670 KBOI
- Commentators: Amalgamation of Alliteration, Adam Alexander, alongside Devin “Green Thumb” Gardner
1. Boise State has never lost to Colorado State
Nope. Not even one time. Eleven matchups, eleven Boise State wins. There was that one time in 2017, where Colorado State had just unveiled their massively expensive new stadium and were playing the Broncos on senior night. They circled the game on their calendar and they even got out to a great start! But…they ultimately blew a 28-3 lead, lost in overtime, and will now forever be known as the Colorado State Falcons. So close. In cinematic reference terms, I present to you this gif from Mel Gibson‘s Apocalypto to describe Colorado State:
2. Yards. Like…a lot of them
The first time Boise State played Colorado State was in 2011, the first year in the Mountain West. In that matchup, Kellen Moore led the Broncos to a then-record 742 yards of offense. In that aforementioned 2017 game? 641. In 2020? Actually, not that many yards. Only 316, but that had a lot more to do with the fact that Boise State scored THREE (!!!) special teams TDs that night.
This Colorado State team is struggling more than most. So, barring a miracle or jinxes being real (in which case, my bad!), Boise State should be able to use the passing game they seemed to discover a bit last week in Colorado Springs, combine it with a potent run game, and pile yards on Colorado State.
3. Stoppable force vs Immoveable Object
Lets outsource some perspective on this one from our good buddy, Mr. Jay Tust.
I’d like everyone to take note below of the TOTAL passing yards allowed at home this year for Boise State. Not “average per game”, but total passing yards allowed.
Seriously, if just one of either Holani or Jeanty (that one’s looking unlikely though, unfortunately) is healthy and Green builds on his passing skills a little more on Saturday, we could be looking at a REALLY fun night on both sides of the ball.
Boise State – Won 3
Colorado State – Won 1
Best name on their roster
Angel King. Awesome name all on its own, but for unrepentant Nicolas Cage fans such as myself, it might also be recognized as an esoteric codeword for a specific item in the 2005 classic, Lord of War.
Best Picture on their roster
Offensive lineman, Dante Bivens. I don’t care if you were walking, chewing bubble gum, and making the Kessel run in less than 12 parsecs, all at the same time. Whatever seemingly impressive thing you did, by the looks of it, my man is NOT impressed.
Players to Watch
Jake Howell, DB
The best part of this Rams team is definitely its defense. Currently, the leader of that defense–in both tackles and interceptions–is sophomore defensive back, Jake Howell.
Mohamed Kamara, DE
Complementing Howell’s play on the back end is the pressure applied by the defensive line up front. That effort is led by senior defensive lineman, Mohamed Kamara. His play has led to 4.5 sacks so far this season.
Tory Horton, WR
In terms of production, the next closest receiver on the roster has 1/3 as many receptions and 400 fewer yards. The 6’2″ junior is far and away the Rams’ most dangerous weapon in the passing game. Along with 538 yards, he has five touchdowns and averages 15.4 yards per catch.
Avery Morrow, RB
Similar to Horton’s dominance in share of targets among receivers, Morrow gets far more carries than any of the other running backs. He has 99 carries on the year for exactly 500 yards and three TDs. The next closest is 39 carries for 104 yards and barely half as many (2.7) as Morrow’s 5.1 yards per carry. The 5’11”, 215 lb junior is coming off his third, straight 100 yard rushing game.
Keys to victory
- Stop The Run This happens by stopping the streak of 100 yard games for Avery Morrow. This Colorado State team’s strength is its defense, but it does have two playmakers on offense that are worth paying respect to. Stopping Morrow means stunting the run game, which will in turn limit the Rams’ passing game. Which leads us to…
- Keep Limiting Explosive Plays Outside of a few, ridiculous plays in the entirely forgettable debacle that was the loss to what’s turning out to be a pretty solid Oregon State team, Boise State’s pass defense has actually been quite incredible at limiting explosive plays. They need to keep doing that. If they can shut down Horton, they can effectively neutralize the Colorado State passing game.
- Rattle Millen INTo Mistakes Colorado State’s quarterback, Clay Millen, has one more touchdown this season than he has interceptions. 5 to 4. But he also has fumbled 6 times and been sacked 29 times already. Do you see where this is going? Boise State’s defensive line, even with the incredibly unfortunate news that George Tarlas is done for the year, needs to take advantage of Millen’s susceptibility to making mistakes. The back end of the defense needs to be ready to capitalize if he starts to make poor decisions with his throws in the face of pressure.
- Keep Improving On Offense Boise State rushed for 316 yards exactly in back to back weeks, but last week the offense seemed to find some rhythm moving the ball in the passing game. Taylen seems to be getting more comfortable going to the air, and with the running game being something of an established commodity at this point, it seems an opportune time to start taking more shots. Again, the strength of Colorado State’s team is their defense, but it doesn’t have the horses (puns ALWAYS intended) to keep up with the Broncos if they can pull off some explosive passes and pile up some points to go along with the anticipated accumulation of yards.
Maybe it’s the pretentiousness of their most vocal fans on Twitter, but a few years ago I just really developed a firm appreciation for #RamsTears. With that in mind, my heart and my head are on the same page with this prediction. I think Colorado State gets a TD and two FGs but is held scoreless in the 4th quarter and Boise State blows this game wide open by midway through the 3rd.
Boise State 45, Colorado State 13